3 matches are on Monday's card at Tulln, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Marvin Moeller against Maxim Mrva in the round of 32. Our calls: Moeller over Mrva, Kopp over Soto, Galan over Topo.
The boldest call on the card: Moeller over Mrva — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Galan
Win probability: 59% Galan · Market: -121 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Daniel Elahi Galan goes up against Marko Topo in the Tulln round of 32. Daniel Elahi Galan comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Marko Topo limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Daniel Elahi Galan is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Galan around 59%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Galan is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Kopp
Win probability: 51% Kopp · Market: -228 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (26%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Matias Soto goes up against Sandro Kopp in the Tulln round of 32. Sandro Kopp is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Matias Soto has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kopp is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: MoellerUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Mrva the favorite; our numbers say Moeller.
Win probability: 52% Moeller · Market: +137 · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
Monday's Tulln round of 32 pits Marvin Moeller against Maxim Mrva on clay. Marvin Moeller comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Maxim Mrva is 7-3 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.2% versus 63.7% on first-serve points in Moeller's favor. Little separates them; Moeller gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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