2 matches are on Tuesday's card at Montreux, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Rebeka Masarova against Simona Waltert in the round of 32. Our calls: Masarova over Waltert, Ferro over Barthel.
The boldest call on the card: Masarova over Waltert — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: MasarovaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Waltert the favorite; our numbers say Masarova.
Win probability: 55% Masarova · Market: +125 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Rebeka Masarova and Simona Waltert meet in the round of 32 at Montreux on Tuesday. Rebeka Masarova is 6-4 across recent matches. Simona Waltert is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 67.8% versus 60.5% on first-serve points in Masarova's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Masarova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Ferro
Win probability: 54% Ferro · Market: -267 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Montreux round of 32 pits Fiona Ferro against Mona Barthel on clay. Fiona Ferro is 5-5 across recent matches. Mona Barthel comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ferro is exactly that — a lean.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.