2 matches are on Saturday's card at Cassis, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer against Titouan Droguet in the semifinal. Our calls: Droguet over Kjaer, Lajal over Masur.
Pick: Lajal
Win probability: 67% Lajal · Market: -344 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Daniel Masur goes up against Mark Lajal in the Cassis semifinal. Mark Lajal comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daniel Masur comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Mark Lajal is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Lajal around 67%. Masur comes in off a compressed schedule; Lajal comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Lajal.
Pick: Droguet
Win probability: 60% Droguet · Market: -164 · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Nicolai Budkov Kjaer goes up against Titouan Droguet in the Cassis semifinal. Titouan Droguet has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has won 3 in a row and 3 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Droguet has been winning 71.9% of first-serve points to Kjaer's 68.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Kjaer comes in off a compressed schedule; Droguet comes in off a compressed schedule. Droguet should have enough here, though Kjaer has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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