2 matches are on Saturday's card at Tulln, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Mika Brunold against Vitaliy Sachko in the semifinal. Our calls: Sachko over Brunold, Silva over Barrena.
Pick: Sachko
Win probability: 55% Sachko · Market: +118 · Sets: 3 (50%) · most likely score 2-1 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Mika Brunold goes up against Vitaliy Sachko in the Tulln semifinal. Vitaliy Sachko comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Mika Brunold is 5-5 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Brunold comes in off a compressed schedule; Sachko comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Sachko gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Silva
Win probability: 56% Silva · Market: -148 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (29%)
Saturday's Tulln semifinal pits Alex Barrena against Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva on clay. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva is rolling — 3 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play. Alex Barrena has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Barrena comes in off a compressed schedule; Silva comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Silva fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.