5 matches are on Saturday's card at Seoul, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alina Korneeva against Taylah Preston in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Korneeva over Preston, Korneeva over Joint, Volynets over Birrell, Tararudee over Joint, Ruse over Bondar.
The boldest call on the card: Volynets over Birrell — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Tararudee
Win probability: 62% Tararudee · Market: -118 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Saturday's Seoul quarterfinal pits Lanlana Tararudee against Maya Joint on hard. Lanlana Tararudee is 7-3 across recent matches. Maya Joint is 5-5 across recent matches.
Tararudee's 67.5% behind the first serve (against 60% for Joint) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tararudee.
Pick: VolynetsUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Birrell a heavy favorite; our numbers say Volynets.
Win probability: 60% Volynets · Market: +264 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Katie Volynets goes up against Kimberly Birrell in the Seoul quarterfinal. Katie Volynets is 7-3 across recent matches. Kimberly Birrell is 4-6 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Birrell comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Volynets is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Ruse
Win probability: 52% Ruse · Market: -156 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Saturday's Seoul quarterfinal pits Anna Bondar against Elena Gabriela Ruse on hard. Elena Gabriela Ruse comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Anna Bondar comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Bondar comes in off a compressed schedule; Ruse comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Ruse fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: KorneevaUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Preston; our numbers say Korneeva.
Win probability: 52% Korneeva · Market: -233 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Alina Korneeva and Taylah Preston meet in the quarterfinal at Seoul on Saturday. Alina Korneeva comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Taylah Preston comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 63.7% versus 59.4% on first-serve points in Korneeva's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Korneeva is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Korneeva
Win probability: 53% Korneeva · Market: -184 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Saturday's Seoul semifinal pits Alina Korneeva against Maya Joint on hard. Alina Korneeva is 5-5 across recent matches. Maya Joint has won 5 of the last 10.
Korneeva's 63.7% behind the first serve (against 60% for Joint) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Korneeva fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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