2 matches are on Thursday's card at Columbus, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: A. Mayo against Colton Smith in the round of 16. Our calls: Smith over Mayo, Krueger over Kozlov.
Pick: Krueger
Win probability: 60% Krueger · Market: +105 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Thursday's Columbus round of 16 pits Mitchell Krueger against Stefan Kozlov on hard. Mitchell Krueger is 6-4 across recent matches. Stefan Kozlov comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Krueger's 68.6% behind the first serve (against 65.5% for Kozlov) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Krueger fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Smith
Win probability: 65% Smith · Market: -180 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when A. Mayo goes up against Colton Smith in the Columbus round of 16. Colton Smith is 6-4 across recent matches. A. Mayo is 2-8 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Smith should have enough here, though Mayo has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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