2 matches are on Friday's card at Columbus, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Keegan Smith against Mitchell Krueger in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Smith over Krueger, Shelbayh over Mayo.
Pick: Shelbayh
Win probability: 63% Shelbayh · Market: -112 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (32%)
A. Mayo and Abedallah Shelbayh meet in the quarterfinal at Columbus on Friday. Abedallah Shelbayh comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. A. Mayo comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Abedallah Shelbayh is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shelbayh around 63%. Mayo comes in off a compressed schedule; Shelbayh comes in off a compressed schedule. Shelbayh should have enough here, though Mayo has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Smith
Win probability: 54% Smith · Market: -127 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Friday's Columbus quarterfinal pits Keegan Smith against Mitchell Krueger on hard. Keegan Smith is 6-4 across recent matches. Mitchell Krueger has won 6 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Smith comes in off a compressed schedule; Krueger comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Smith fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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