3 matches are on Friday's card at Curitiba, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida against Tomas Barrios Vera in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Almeida over Vera, Heide over Midon, Guido over Villanueva.
Pick: Guido
Win probability: 58% Guido · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Gonzalo Villanueva and Ivan Justo Guido meet in the quarterfinal at Curitiba on Friday. Ivan Justo Guido has won 6 of the last 10. Gonzalo Villanueva is 6-4 across recent matches.
Ivan Justo Guido is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Guido around 58%. Villanueva comes in off a compressed schedule; Guido comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Guido gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Almeida
Win probability: 51% Almeida · Market: +113 · We call it in 3 sets (53%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida and Tomas Barrios Vera meet in the quarterfinal at Curitiba on Friday. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is 5-5 across recent matches. Tomas Barrios Vera comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Almeida gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Heide
Win probability: 66% Heide · Market: -214 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Gustavo Heide and Lautaro Midon meet in the quarterfinal at Curitiba on Friday. Gustavo Heide has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Lautaro Midon has won 6 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Heide has been winning 71.3% of first-serve points to Midon's 63.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Heide should have enough here, though Midon has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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