5 matches are on Saturday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Francisco Cerundolo against Jakub Mensik in the round of 16. Our calls: Mensik over Cerundolo, Rublev over Safiullin, Minaur over Halys, Medvedev over Struff, Zverev over Shang.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 87% Zverev · Market: -952 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (62%)
Saturday's Beijing round of 16 pits Alexander Zverev against Juncheng Shang on hard. Alexander Zverev is 9-1 across recent matches. Juncheng Shang comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Zverev's 73.7% behind the first serve (against 69.7% for Shang) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Zverev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 70% Minaur · Market: -262 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Saturday's Beijing round of 16 pits Alex De Minaur against Quentin Halys on hard. Alex De Minaur is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Quentin Halys limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule; Halys comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Minaur.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 59% Rublev · Market: -128 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Saturday's Beijing round of 16 pits Andrey Rublev against Roman Safiullin on hard. Andrey Rublev comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Roman Safiullin has won 6 of the last 10.
Andrey Rublev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Rublev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 56% Mensik · Market: -185 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Francisco Cerundolo and Jakub Mensik meet in the round of 16 at Beijing on Saturday. Jakub Mensik comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Francisco Cerundolo has won 6 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 76.6% versus 67.6% on first-serve points in Mensik's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mensik is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 78% Medvedev · Market: -469 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Saturday's Beijing round of 16 pits Daniil Medvedev against Jan Lennard Struff on hard. Daniil Medvedev has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Jan Lennard Struff comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Daniil Medvedev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Medvedev comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Medvedev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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