✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Elena Rybakina at 90%, but Alina Charaeva won 3-6 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 90% Rybakina · Market: -1010 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (65%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alina Charaeva goes up against Elena Rybakina in the Beijing round of 64. Elena Rybakina is rolling — 10 straight wins, 10 of 10 in recent play. Alina Charaeva is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Charaeva's 63.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Charaeva comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Iga Swiatek was our 89% pick, and won 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 89% Swiatek · Market: -1696 · We call it in 2 sets (73%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (67%)
Saturday's Beijing round of 64 pits Iga Swiatek against Xinyu Gao on hard. Iga Swiatek comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Xinyu Gao is 4-6 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Swiatek has been winning 63.7% of first-serve points to Gao's 56.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Swiatek plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Coco Gauff at 80% before the match, and Coco Gauff won 7-6 4-6 6-2.
Pick: Gauff
Win probability: 80% Gauff · Market: -623 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (59%)
Camila Osorio and Coco Gauff meet in the round of 64 at Beijing on Saturday. Coco Gauff is 9-1 across recent matches. Camila Osorio comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Gauff's 65.8% behind the first serve (against 61.6% for Osorio) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Anything other than a Gauff win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 80% on Belinda Bencic, who won 6-1 7-6.
Pick: Bencic
Win probability: 80% Bencic · Market: -399 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (57%)
Anastasia Zakharova and Belinda Bencic meet in the round of 64 at Beijing on Saturday. Belinda Bencic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Anastasia Zakharova is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 66.3% versus 59.1% on first-serve points in Bencic's favor. If Bencic plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Iva Jovic at 80% before the match, and Iva Jovic won 2-6 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 80% Jovic · Market: -748 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (57%)
Saturday's Beijing round of 64 pits Harriet Dart against Iva Jovic on hard. Iva Jovic has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Harriet Dart is 3-7 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Jovic win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Elina Svitolina at 70% before the match, and Elina Svitolina won 1-6 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 70% Svitolina · Market: -310 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Elina Svitolina and Katerina Siniakova meet in the round of 64 at Beijing on Saturday. Elina Svitolina has won 6 of the last 10. Katerina Siniakova has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Siniakova comes in off a compressed schedule. Svitolina should have enough here, though Siniakova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Leylah Fernandez at 67% lost to Kamilla Rakhimova (6-2 4-6 6-3).
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 67% Fernandez · Market: -279 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Kamilla Rakhimova and Leylah Fernandez meet in the round of 64 at Beijing on Saturday. Leylah Fernandez is rolling — 5 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Kamilla Rakhimova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Leylah Fernandez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fernandez around 67%. The edge belongs to Fernandez — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 69% on Maria Sakkari, who won 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Sakkari
Win probability: 69% Sakkari · Market: -216 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
Maria Sakkari and Storm Hunter meet in the round of 64 at Beijing on Saturday. Maria Sakkari comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Storm Hunter has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 65% versus 59.5% on first-serve points in Sakkari's favor. Hunter comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sakkari.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Marie Bouzkova at 62% before the match, and Marie Bouzkova won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 62% Bouzkova · Market: -198 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Kimberly Birrell and Marie Bouzkova meet in the round of 64 at Beijing on Saturday. Marie Bouzkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Kimberly Birrell is rolling — 5 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Birrell comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bouzkova.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 61% on Elise Mertens, who won 6-0 4-6 7-5.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 61% Mertens · Market: -111 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Elise Mertens and Katie Volynets meet in the round of 64 at Beijing on Saturday. Elise Mertens has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Katie Volynets is 7-3 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Mertens has been winning 63.5% of first-serve points to Volynets's 57.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Volynets comes in off a compressed schedule. Mertens should have enough here, though Volynets has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Paula Badosa at 57% lost to Jelena Ostapenko (7-6 7-5).
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 57% Badosa · Market: -142 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Saturday's Beijing round of 64 pits Jelena Ostapenko against Paula Badosa on hard. Paula Badosa has won 7 of the last 10. Jelena Ostapenko is 6-4 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Badosa fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Qinwen Zheng. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Zheng
Win probability: 54% Zheng · Market: -168 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Saturday's Beijing round of 64 pits Anna Kalinskaya against Qinwen Zheng on hard. Qinwen Zheng limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Anna Kalinskaya is 7-3 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 72.3% versus 63.4% on first-serve points in Zheng's favor. Zheng comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zheng fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Ann Li at 56% before the match, and Ann Li won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 56% Li · Market: -119 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Ann Li goes up against Ashlyn Krueger in the Beijing round of 64. Ann Li comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Ashlyn Krueger is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).
Ann Li simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Krueger comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Li is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 54% on Donna Vekic, who won 6-1 4-6 6-2.
Pick: Vekic
Win probability: 54% Vekic · Market: -175 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Saturday's Beijing round of 64 pits Donna Vekic against Lin Zhu on hard. Donna Vekic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Lin Zhu comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.6% versus 59.7% on first-serve points in Vekic's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vekic is exactly that — a lean.