8 matches are on Sunday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Aryna Sabalenka against Nikola Bartunkova in the round of 32. Our calls: Sabalenka over Bartunkova, Shnaider over Alexandrova, Osaka over Bejlek, Preston over Snigur, Muchova over Samsonova, Andreeva over Kudermetova, and 2 more.
Pick: Sabalenka
Win probability: 80% Sabalenka · Market: -455 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (56%)
Aryna Sabalenka and Nikola Bartunkova meet in the round of 32 at Beijing on Sunday. Aryna Sabalenka comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Nikola Bartunkova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Sabalenka win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Noskova
Win probability: 80% Noskova · Market: -508 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (56%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Linda Noskova goes up against Viktorija Golubic in the Beijing round of 32. Linda Noskova is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Viktorija Golubic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Noskova has been winning 69.3% of first-serve points to Golubic's 58%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Golubic needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Muchova
Win probability: 77% Muchova · Market: -300 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Sunday's Beijing round of 32 pits Karolina Muchova against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Karolina Muchova has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Liudmila Samsonova is 6-4 across recent matches.
Karolina Muchova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Muchova around 77%. Anything other than a Muchova win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 76% Andreeva · Market: -785 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)
Sunday's Beijing round of 32 pits Mirra Andreeva against Polina Kudermetova on hard. Mirra Andreeva has won 7 of the last 10. Polina Kudermetova is 5-5 across recent matches.
Mirra Andreeva simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Andreeva plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 64% Osaka · Market: -254 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Naomi Osaka goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Beijing round of 32. Naomi Osaka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Sara Bejlek comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Osaka's 71.3% behind the first serve (against 58.3% for Bejlek) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Osaka.
Pick: Yastremska
Win probability: 61% Yastremska · Market: -226 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Dayana Yastremska and Sinja Kraus meet in the round of 32 at Beijing on Sunday. Dayana Yastremska has won 4 of the last 10. Sinja Kraus has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 62.3% versus 58.8% on first-serve points in Yastremska's favor. The edge belongs to Yastremska — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 60% Shnaider · Market: -202 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Sunday's Beijing round of 32 pits Diana Shnaider against Ekaterina Alexandrova on hard. Diana Shnaider comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Ekaterina Alexandrova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Shnaider gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Preston
Win probability: 50% Preston · Market: +151 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Daria Snigur and Taylah Preston meet in the round of 32 at Beijing on Sunday. Taylah Preston comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daria Snigur is 7-3 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Preston is exactly that — a lean.
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