4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Palermo (Italy), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Gabriele Piraino against Jay Clarke in the round of 32. Our calls: Clarke over Piraino, Passaro over Batalla, Carlo over Wiskandt, Giustino over Langmo.
Pick: Giustino
Win probability: 66% Giustino · Market: -253 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Tuesday's Palermo (Italy) round of 32 pits Christian Langmo against Lorenzo Giustino on clay. Lorenzo Giustino brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Christian Langmo comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.
Lorenzo Giustino is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Giustino around 66%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Giustino.
Pick: Carlo
Win probability: 66% Carlo · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alberto Caniato Carlo goes up against Max Wiskandt in the Palermo (Italy) round of 32. Alberto Caniato Carlo is rolling — 5 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play. Max Wiskandt limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Carlo's 70.6% behind the first serve (against 65.7% for Wiskandt) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Carlo.
Pick: Passaro
Win probability: 56% Passaro · Market: -145 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Francesco Passaro goes up against Oriol Roca Batalla in the Palermo (Italy) round of 32. Francesco Passaro comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Oriol Roca Batalla comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Passaro is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Clarke
Win probability: 58% Clarke · Market: -166 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Gabriele Piraino goes up against Jay Clarke in the Palermo (Italy) round of 32. Jay Clarke comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Gabriele Piraino has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 68% versus 62.3% on first-serve points in Clarke's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Clarke is exactly that — a lean.
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