4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Samsun, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Anna Blinkova against Elena Pridankina in the round of 32. Our calls: Blinkova over Pridankina, Jeanjean over Bolkvadze, Sakatsume over Hruncakova, Akugue over Stefanini.
The boldest call on the card: Akugue over Stefanini — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Blinkova
Win probability: 61% Blinkova · Market: -205 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Anna Blinkova goes up against Elena Pridankina in the Samsun round of 32. Anna Blinkova is 7-3 across recent matches. Elena Pridankina has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 61.5% versus 57.1% on first-serve points in Blinkova's favor. The edge belongs to Blinkova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Jeanjean
Win probability: 59% Jeanjean · Market: -221 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Leolia Jeanjean and Mariam Bolkvadze meet in the round of 32 at Samsun on Wednesday. Leolia Jeanjean is 6-4 across recent matches. Mariam Bolkvadze has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Jeanjean has been winning 61.5% of first-serve points to Bolkvadze's 56.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Jeanjean gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: AkugueUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Stefanini; our numbers say Akugue.
Win probability: 55% Akugue · Market: +157 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Lucrezia Stefanini and Noma Noha Akugue meet in the round of 16 at Samsun on Wednesday. Noma Noha Akugue has won 7 of the last 10. Lucrezia Stefanini has won 4 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 60.1% versus 55.2% on first-serve points in Akugue's favor. Stefanini comes in off a compressed schedule; Akugue comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Akugue fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Sakatsume
Win probability: 59% Sakatsume · Market: -228 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Wednesday's Samsun round of 16 pits Himeno Sakatsume against Viktoria Hruncakova on hard. Himeno Sakatsume has won 4 of the last 10. Viktoria Hruncakova is 4-6 across recent matches.
Himeno Sakatsume simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sakatsume fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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