5 matches are on Wednesday's card at Villena, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Dominic Stricker against Laslo Djere in the round of 32. Our calls: Djere over Stricker, Samuel over Barton, Butvilas over Rehberg, Kasnikowski over Henning, Sanchis over Shelbayh.
The boldest call on the card: Sanchis over Shelbayh — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Samuel
Win probability: 60% Samuel · Market: -374 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Wednesday's Villena round of 32 pits Hynek Barton against Toby Samuel on clay. Toby Samuel is 7-3 across recent matches. Hynek Barton comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Samuel should have enough here, though Barton has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Butvilas
Win probability: 53% Butvilas · Market: -159 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Edas Butvilas and Max Hans Rehberg meet in the round of 32 at Villena on Wednesday. Edas Butvilas comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Max Hans Rehberg is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Butvilas is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: DjereUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Stricker the favorite; our numbers say Djere.
Win probability: 51% Djere · Market: +135 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Wednesday's Villena round of 32 pits Dominic Stricker against Laslo Djere on clay. Laslo Djere comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Dominic Stricker has won 6 of the last 10.
Laslo Djere is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Djere around 51%. Little separates them; Djere gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Kasnikowski
Win probability: 59% Kasnikowski · Market: -128 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Maks Kasnikowski goes up against Philip Henning in the Villena round of 32. Maks Kasnikowski has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Philip Henning limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Maks Kasnikowski is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Kasnikowski around 59%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kasnikowski is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: SanchisUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Shelbayh the favorite; our numbers say Sanchis.
Win probability: 55% Sanchis · Market: +133 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
Wednesday's Villena round of 32 pits Abedallah Shelbayh against David Jorda Sanchis on clay. David Jorda Sanchis has won 3 of the last 10. Abedallah Shelbayh is 6-4 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.8% versus 67.2% on first-serve points in Sanchis's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sanchis fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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