4 matches are on Friday's card at Antofagasta, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Almeida over Silva, Wild over Alves, Midon over Ribeiro, Angelo over Tobon.
Pick: Wild
Win probability: 66% Wild · Market: -234 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Felipe Meligeni Alves goes up against Thiago Seyboth Wild in the Antofagasta quarterfinal. Thiago Seyboth Wild brings a 9-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Felipe Meligeni Alves is 4-6 across recent matches.
Thiago Seyboth Wild is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Wild around 66%. Wild should have enough here, though Alves has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Almeida
Win probability: 56% Almeida · Market: -160 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva goes up against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the Antofagasta quarterfinal. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Almeida fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Angelo
Win probability: 68% Angelo · Market: -234 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Friday's Antofagasta quarterfinal pits Juan Carlos Prado Angelo against M. Tobon on clay. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. M. Tobon comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Angelo around 68%. Angelo comes in off a compressed schedule; Tobon comes in off a compressed schedule. Angelo should have enough here, though Tobon has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Midon
Win probability: 66% Midon · Market: -186 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Friday's Antofagasta quarterfinal pits Eduardo Ribeiro against Lautaro Midon on clay. Lautaro Midon comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Eduardo Ribeiro comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Lautaro Midon simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Ribeiro comes in off a compressed schedule; Midon comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Midon — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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