4 matches are on Friday's card at Villena, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Hynek Barton against Laslo Djere in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Djere over Barton, Ruiz over Martinez, Gojo over Jones, Glinka over Shelbayh.
Pick: Ruiz
Win probability: 64% Ruiz · Market: -139 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Pablo Llamas Ruiz goes up against Pedro Martinez in the Villena quarterfinal. Pablo Llamas Ruiz has won 5 of the last 10. Pedro Martinez is 6-4 across recent matches.
Pablo Llamas Ruiz simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Ruiz comes in off a compressed schedule; Martinez comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Ruiz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Gojo
Win probability: 67% Gojo · Market: -128 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Borna Gojo and Jack Pinnington Jones meet in the quarterfinal at Villena on Friday. Borna Gojo has won 6 of the last 10. Jack Pinnington Jones is 4-6 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 75% versus 70.5% on first-serve points in Gojo's favor. Gojo comes in off a compressed schedule; Jones comes in off a compressed schedule. Gojo should have enough here, though Jones has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Glinka
Win probability: 67% Glinka · Market: -145 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Abedallah Shelbayh goes up against Daniil Glinka in the Villena quarterfinal. Daniil Glinka is 5-5 across recent matches. Abedallah Shelbayh is 8-2 across recent matches.
Glinka's 71.1% behind the first serve (against 66.9% for Shelbayh) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Shelbayh comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Glinka.
Pick: Djere
Win probability: 65% Djere · Market: -172 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Friday's Villena quarterfinal pits Hynek Barton against Laslo Djere on clay. Laslo Djere is 7-3 across recent matches. Hynek Barton is 5-5 across recent matches.
Laslo Djere is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Djere around 65%. Barton comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Djere.
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