3 matches are on Thursday's card at Santa Cruz 2, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ivan Justo Guido against Manuel La Serna Juan in the round of 16. Our calls: Guido over Juan, Mena over Kicker, Angelo over Roncadelli.
Pick: Guido
Win probability: 61% Guido · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Thursday's Santa Cruz 2 round of 16 pits Ivan Justo Guido against Manuel La Serna Juan on clay. Ivan Justo Guido is rolling — 7 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Manuel La Serna Juan is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Guido is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Juan arrives with very little recovery time. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Guido.
Pick: Angelo
Win probability: 63% Angelo · Market: -228 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Thursday's Santa Cruz 2 round of 16 pits Franco Roncadelli against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo on clay. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo is 7-3 across recent matches. Franco Roncadelli has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Angelo has been winning 65% of first-serve points to Roncadelli's 58.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Roncadelli comes in off a compressed schedule; Angelo arrives with very little recovery time. The edge belongs to Angelo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Mena
Win probability: 61% Mena · Market: -147 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Facundo Mena goes up against Nicolas Kicker in the Santa Cruz 2 round of 16. Facundo Mena has won 9 of the last 10. Nicolas Kicker comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Mena's 71.8% behind the first serve (against 64.1% for Kicker) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Mena is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Kicker is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling. Mena should have enough here, though Kicker has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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