2 matches are on Monday's card at Florence (Italy), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Federico Bondioli against Zdenek Kolar in the round of 32. Our calls: Bondioli over Kolar, Houkes over Agamenone.
The boldest call on the card: Bondioli over Kolar — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Houkes
Win probability: 67% Houkes · Market: -248 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Monday's Florence (Italy) round of 32 pits Franco Agamenone against Max Houkes on clay. Max Houkes has won 4 of the last 10. Franco Agamenone has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Houkes has been winning 68.3% of first-serve points to Agamenone's 63.3%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Houkes should have enough here, though Agamenone has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: BondioliUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Kolar the favorite; our numbers say Bondioli.
Win probability: 52% Bondioli · Market: +140 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (26%)
Monday's Florence (Italy) round of 32 pits Federico Bondioli against Zdenek Kolar on clay. Federico Bondioli has won 6 of the last 10. Zdenek Kolar is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Bondioli gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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