7 matches are on Monday's card at Osaka, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ashlyn Krueger against Janice Tjen in the round of 32. Our calls: Krueger over Tjen, Samsonova over Tagger, Quevedo over Tararudee, Boulter over Sakatsume, Gibson over Dart, Mcnally over Kraus, and 1 more.
Pick: Golubic
Win probability: 62% Golubic · Market: -243 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Mai Hontama and Viktorija Golubic meet in the round of 32 at Osaka on Monday. Viktorija Golubic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Mai Hontama limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Golubic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Samsonova
Win probability: 57% Samsonova · Market: -135 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Monday's Osaka round of 32 pits Lilli Tagger against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Liudmila Samsonova has won 5 of the last 10. Lilli Tagger limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Samsonova is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Boulter
Win probability: 54% Boulter · Market: -164 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Monday's Osaka round of 32 pits Himeno Sakatsume against Katie Boulter on hard. Katie Boulter has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Himeno Sakatsume is 6-4 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.5% versus 61.7% on first-serve points in Boulter's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Boulter fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Krueger
Win probability: 51% Krueger · Market: -122 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Monday's Osaka round of 32 pits Ashlyn Krueger against Janice Tjen on hard. Ashlyn Krueger is 5-5 across recent matches. Janice Tjen is 5-5 across recent matches.
Ashlyn Krueger simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Krueger gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Quevedo
Win probability: 50% Quevedo · Market: +166 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Kaitlin Quevedo and Lanlana Tararudee meet in the round of 32 at Osaka on Monday. Kaitlin Quevedo brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Lanlana Tararudee has won 5 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Quevedo fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Mcnally
Win probability: 64% Mcnally · Market: -214 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Caty Mcnally and Sinja Kraus meet in the round of 32 at Osaka on Monday. Caty Mcnally has won 5 of the last 10. Sinja Kraus has won 5 of the last 10.
Caty Mcnally is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Mcnally around 64%. The edge belongs to Mcnally — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Gibson
Win probability: 60% Gibson · Market: -125 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Harriet Dart and Talia Gibson meet in the round of 32 at Osaka on Monday. Talia Gibson is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Harriet Dart comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Gibson.
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