6 matches are on Wednesday's card at Brussels, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Mariano Navone against Tallon Griekspoor in the round of 16. Our calls: Navone over Griekspoor, Cerundolo over Damm, Fearnley over Chidekh, Prizmic over Dzumhur, Struff over Onclin, Goffin over Bertola.
The boldest call on the card: Goffin over Bertola — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Prizmic
Win probability: 63% Prizmic · Market: -212 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Wednesday's Brussels round of 32 pits Damir Dzumhur against Dino Prizmic on hard. Dino Prizmic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Damir Dzumhur is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.5% versus 64.9% on first-serve points in Prizmic's favor. The edge belongs to Prizmic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 64% Cerundolo · Market: -162 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Francisco Cerundolo goes up against Martin Damm in the Brussels round of 16. Francisco Cerundolo has won 6 of the last 10. Martin Damm has won 4 of the last 10.
Francisco Cerundolo simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Cerundolo.
Pick: GoffinUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Bertola; our numbers say Goffin.
Win probability: 59% Goffin · Market: +173 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when David Goffin goes up against Remy Bertola in the Brussels round of 32. David Goffin is searching for form, having lost 8 in a row (2 of the last 10). Remy Bertola has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Goffin fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Struff
Win probability: 71% Struff · Market: -267 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Gauthier Onclin and Jan Lennard Struff meet in the round of 16 at Brussels on Wednesday. Jan Lennard Struff has won 4 of the last 10. Gauthier Onclin limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 76.6% versus 64.9% on first-serve points in Struff's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Struff.
Pick: Fearnley
Win probability: 61% Fearnley · Market: -104 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Wednesday's Brussels round of 16 pits Clement Chidekh against Jacob Fearnley on hard. Jacob Fearnley has won 7 of the last 10. Clement Chidekh is 7-3 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fearnley.
Pick: NavoneUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Griekspoor; our numbers say Navone.
Win probability: 53% Navone · Market: +152 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Wednesday's Brussels round of 16 pits Mariano Navone against Tallon Griekspoor on hard. Mariano Navone limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Tallon Griekspoor limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Navone is exactly that — a lean.
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