3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Seoul, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Aleksandar Vukic against Billy Harris in the round of 16. Our calls: Vukic over Harris, Sakamoto over Zhang, Harris over Jasika.
Pick: Vukic
Win probability: 59% Vukic · Market: -185 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Seoul round of 16 pits Aleksandar Vukic against Billy Harris on hard. Aleksandar Vukic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Billy Harris is 4-6 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Vukic comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vukic is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Harris
Win probability: 85% Harris · Market: -670 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (56%)
Lloyd Harris and Omar Jasika meet in the round of 16 at Seoul on Wednesday. Lloyd Harris is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Omar Jasika is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Harris has been winning 74.3% of first-serve points to Jasika's 64.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Harris win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Sakamoto
Win probability: 64% Sakamoto · Market: -185 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Rei Sakamoto goes up against Zhizhen Zhang in the Seoul round of 16. Rei Sakamoto comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Zhizhen Zhang has won 3 of the last 10.
Rei Sakamoto is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sakamoto around 64%. The edge belongs to Sakamoto — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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