2 matches are on Wednesday's card at Sioux Falls, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: A. Mayo against Maks Kasnikowski in the round of 16. Our calls: Kasnikowski over Mayo, Wolf over Milavsky.
Pick: Kasnikowski
Win probability: 58% Kasnikowski · Market: -157 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when A. Mayo goes up against Maks Kasnikowski in the Sioux Falls round of 16. Maks Kasnikowski has won 6 of the last 10. A. Mayo has won 5 of the last 10.
Maks Kasnikowski is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kasnikowski around 58%. Mayo comes in off a compressed schedule; Kasnikowski comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kasnikowski fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Wolf
Win probability: 61% Wolf · Market: -194 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Daniel Milavsky goes up against J J Wolf in the Sioux Falls round of 16. J J Wolf is 5-5 across recent matches. Daniel Milavsky is 5-5 across recent matches.
J J Wolf is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Wolf around 61%. Wolf comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Wolf.
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