2 matches are on Thursday's card at Courmayeur (Italy), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elsa Jacquemot against Susan Bandecchi in the round of 16. Our calls: Bandecchi over Jacquemot, Blinkova over Zavatska.
Pick: Bandecchi
Win probability: 50% Bandecchi · Market: +113 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Thursday's Courmayeur (Italy) round of 16 pits Elsa Jacquemot against Susan Bandecchi on hard. Susan Bandecchi is 5-5 across recent matches. Elsa Jacquemot has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Jacquemot comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bandecchi is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Blinkova
Win probability: 76% Blinkova · Market: -467 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)
Thursday's Courmayeur (Italy) round of 16 pits Anna Blinkova against Katarina Zavatska on hard. Anna Blinkova is 7-3 across recent matches. Katarina Zavatska comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Blinkova has been winning 61.5% of first-serve points to Zavatska's 54.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Zavatska needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
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