2 matches are on Thursday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jie Cui against Tristan Schoolkate in the round of 16. Our calls: Schoolkate over Cui, Sun over Biryukov.
Pick: Schoolkate
Win probability: 65% Schoolkate · Market: -171 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Jie Cui and Tristan Schoolkate meet in the round of 16 at Ningbo on Thursday. Tristan Schoolkate is rolling — 5 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Jie Cui comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Schoolkate has been winning 75.5% of first-serve points to Cui's 68%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Schoolkate should have enough here, though Cui has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Sun
Win probability: 51% Sun · Market: -179 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Fajing Sun and Petr Bar Biryukov meet in the round of 16 at Ningbo on Thursday. Fajing Sun has won 3 of the last 10. Petr Bar Biryukov has won 5 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Sun gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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