2 matches are on Friday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Mert Alkaya against Yu Hsiou Hsu in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Alkaya over Hsu, Cui over Biryukov.
The boldest call on the card: Alkaya over Hsu — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: AlkayaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Hsu the favorite; our numbers say Alkaya.
Win probability: 51% Alkaya · Market: +126 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Friday's Ningbo quarterfinal pits Mert Alkaya against Yu Hsiou Hsu on hard. Mert Alkaya has won 5 of the last 10. Yu Hsiou Hsu has won 3 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.1% versus 66.1% on first-serve points in Alkaya's favor. Little separates them; Alkaya gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Cui
Win probability: 59% Cui · Market: -235 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Jie Cui and Petr Bar Biryukov meet in the quarterfinal at Ningbo on Friday. Jie Cui has won 6 of the last 10. Petr Bar Biryukov comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cui fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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