2 matches are on Monday's card at Chennai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Harriet Dart against Polina Kudermetova in the round of 32. Our calls: Kudermetova over Dart, Tagger over Jacquemot.
The boldest call on the card: Tagger over Jacquemot — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: TaggerUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Jacquemot a heavy favorite; our numbers say Tagger.
Win probability: 76% Tagger · Market: +271 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Elsa Jacquemot and Lilli Tagger meet in the round of 32 at Chennai on Monday. Lilli Tagger is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Elsa Jacquemot has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Tagger's 67.6% behind the first serve (against 64.3% for Jacquemot) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Tagger plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Kudermetova
Win probability: 52% Kudermetova · Market: +115 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Chennai round of 32 pits Harriet Dart against Polina Kudermetova on hard. Polina Kudermetova is 4-6 across recent matches. Harriet Dart is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kudermetova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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