Monday's Olbia round of 32 pits Abedallah Shelbayh against Andrea Guerrieri on hard. Andrea Guerrieri is 6-4 across recent matches. Abedallah Shelbayh is 7-3 across recent matches.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Guerrieri fractionally more likely to land the big points.