A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Adrian Mannarino goes up against Daniil Medvedev in the Vienna quarterfinal. Daniil Medvedev has won 4 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Adrian Mannarino has won 7 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Medvedev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.