A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Adrian Mannarino goes up against Karen Khachanov in the Shanghai round of 32. Karen Khachanov is 7-3 across recent matches. Adrian Mannarino is 5-5 across recent matches.

Karen Khachanov simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Khachanov — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.