Wednesday's Shanghai first round pits Adrian Mannarino against Nikoloz Basilashvili on hard. Adrian Mannarino has won 4 of the last 10. Nikoloz Basilashvili is 5-5 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mannarino is exactly that — a lean.