A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Akira Santillan goes up against Bernard Tomic in the Shanghai round of 32. Bernard Tomic has won 8 of the last 10. Akira Santillan is 5-5 across recent matches.

Bernard Tomic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tomic around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tomic is exactly that — a lean.