A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alberto Caniato Carlo goes up against Marco Trungelliti in the Lisbon round of 16. Marco Trungelliti is 6-4 across recent matches. Alberto Caniato Carlo has won 6 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Trungelliti is exactly that — a lean.