Shanghai · R32 · Hard · best of 3 · Oct 11, 2026, 11:30 AM UTC
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 11, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Sunday's Shanghai round of 32 pits Alejandro Davidovich Fokina against Frances Tiafoe on hard. Frances Tiafoe has won 7 of the last 10. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 7-3 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 72.1% versus 67.1% on first-serve points in Tiafoe's favor. Little separates them; Tiafoe gets the nod on the finest of margins.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-113(53.0% Tiafoe)
Market-100(50.1% Tiafoe)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1904
Frances Tiafoe
1976
Overall rating
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1965
Frances Tiafoe
2025
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Frances Tiafoe
1st serve in
68.3%
59.4%
1st serve points won
67.1%
72.1%
2nd serve points won
52.4%
51.7%
Form
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
7–3
Frances Tiafoe
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe?
Maiden gives Frances Tiafoe a 53% chance to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Shanghai round of 32 on October 11, 2026.
How confident is the Frances Tiafoe pick?
53% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 53%, picks in that range have won 56% of the time (358 so far). See the track record page for the full table.