Matteo Berrettini won 1-6 7-6 6-4
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 53% on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina; Matteo Berrettini won 1-6 7-6 6-4.
Thursday's Tokyo round of 32 pits Alejandro Davidovich Fokina against Matteo Berrettini on hard. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Matteo Berrettini comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Fokina gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 68.3% | 63.9% |
| 1st serve points won | 67.1% | 76.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 52.4% | 51.8% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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