Thursday's US Open round of 64 pits Alejandro Tabilo against Alexei Popyrin on hard. Alejandro Tabilo has won 5 of the last 10. Alexei Popyrin comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Tabilo should have enough here, though Popyrin has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.