Tuesday's Basel round of 32 pits Alejandro Tabilo against Rafael Jodar on hard. Rafael Jodar has won 7 of the last 10. Alejandro Tabilo limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Jodar.