Monday's Cincinnati round of 32 pits Alejandro Tabilo against Rafael Jodar on hard. Rafael Jodar has won 8 of the last 10. Alejandro Tabilo is 5-5 across recent matches.

Rafael Jodar is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Jodar around 64%. Jodar should have enough here, though Tabilo has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.