Tuesday's Basel round of 32 pits Aleksandar Kovacevic against Ben Shelton on hard. Ben Shelton comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Aleksandar Kovacevic has dropped 5 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kovacevic needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.