Sunday's Cincinnati round of 64 pits Aleksandar Kovacevic against Brandon Nakashima on hard. Brandon Nakashima is 8-2 across recent matches. Aleksandar Kovacevic has dropped 7 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

Brandon Nakashima simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Kovacevic needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.