Thursday's Jinan round of 16 pits Aleksandar Vukic against Tomas Machac on hard. Tomas Machac has won 4 of the last 10. Aleksandar Vukic has dropped 4 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Vukic comes in off a compressed schedule. Machac should have enough here, though Vukic has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.