Thursday's Todi round of 16 pits Alex Barrena against Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano on clay. Alex Barrena has won 5 of the last 10. Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Alex Barrena simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Barrena is exactly that — a lean.