Friday's Todi quarterfinal pits Alex Barrena against Lukas Neumayer on clay. Lukas Neumayer has won 5 of the last 10. Alex Barrena comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Barrena comes in off a compressed schedule; Neumayer comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Neumayer.