Thursday's Trieste round of 16 pits Alex Barrena against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo on clay. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alex Barrena is 4-6 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Izquierdo fractionally more likely to land the big points.