Brandon Nakashima won 7-6 6-4
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 52% on Alex De Minaur; Brandon Nakashima won 7-6 6-4.
Friday's Washington quarterfinal pits Alex De Minaur against Brandon Nakashima on hard. Alex De Minaur comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule; Nakashima comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Minaur fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Alex De Minaur | Brandon Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 57.4% | 65.1% |
| 1st serve points won | 69% | 74.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 52.8% | 52.1% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
What Pro unlocksOne email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.