Friday's Washington quarterfinal pits Alex De Minaur against Brandon Nakashima on hard. Alex De Minaur comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Brandon Nakashima comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule; Nakashima comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Minaur fractionally more likely to land the big points.