Cameron Norrie won 5-7 7-6 6-1
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 62% on Alex De Minaur; Cameron Norrie won 5-7 7-6 6-1.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Montreal round of 32. Alex De Minaur is 7-3 across recent matches. Cameron Norrie has won 5 of the last 10.
Alex De Minaur is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Minaur around 62%. Norrie comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Minaur.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Alex De Minaur | Cameron Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 57.4% | 65.5% |
| 1st serve points won | 69% | 68.4% |
| 2nd serve points won | 52.8% | 50% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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