Alex De Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz meet in the semifinal at Beijing on Monday. Alex De Minaur is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Hubert Hurkacz is 8-2 across recent matches.

Alex De Minaur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Minaur is exactly that — a lean.