A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Learner Tien in the Vienna round of 16. Alex De Minaur comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Learner Tien is 5-5 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Minaur fractionally more likely to land the big points.