A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Quentin Halys in the Cincinnati round of 64. Alex De Minaur is 6-4 across recent matches. Quentin Halys is rolling — 6 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Halys comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Minaur.