Alex De Minaur and Rei Sakamoto meet in the round of 32 at Shanghai on Sunday. Alex De Minaur is rolling — 6 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Rei Sakamoto is 6-4 across recent matches.

Alex De Minaur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Minaur.