Hamburg · SF · Clay · best of 3 · May 22, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC

Alex De Minaur vs. Tommy Paul — result and pick review

By The Maiden Desk · May 22, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

Share result

Result

✓ Pick right

Tommy Paul won 2-6 6-3 6-3 · May 22, 2026, 8:20 PM UTC

We got this one right. Tommy Paul was our 61% pick, and won 2-6 6-3 6-3.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Tommy Paul in the Hamburg semifinal. Tommy Paul is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Alex De Minaur brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.

The ledger favors Alex De Minaur, 5-2 across their 7 meetings with Tommy Paul. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Paul — worth more than the overall number this week.

Tommy Paul is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Paul around 61%. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Paul — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

The numbers behind the pick

Surface ratings

Clay rating

Alex De Minaur

1827

Tommy Paul

1900

Overall rating

Alex De Minaur

1947

Tommy Paul

1936

Serve

Serve (last 52 weeks)	Alex De Minaur	Tommy Paul
1st serve in	57.4%	61.9%
1st serve points won	68.9%	69.7%
2nd serve points won	52.8%	50.8%

Form

Alex De Minaur

6–4

Tommy Paul

7–3

Head to head

Alex De Minaur leads the head-to-head 5-2. On clay: 2-1 Tommy Paul.

Full Minaur vs Paul history →

Frequently asked questions

Who won Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul at Hamburg?: Tommy Paul won 2-6 6-3 6-3.
Was the Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul prediction correct?: We got this one right. Tommy Paul was our 61% pick, and won 2-6 6-3 6-3.
What is the head-to-head record between Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul?: Alex De Minaur leads the head-to-head 5-2. On clay: 2-1 Tommy Paul.