A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Tommy Paul in the Hamburg semifinal. Tommy Paul is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Alex De Minaur brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
The ledger favors Alex De Minaur, 5-2 across their 7 meetings with Tommy Paul. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Paul — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Paul — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.